Recent Analysis By Jp Morgan

[KeithNYC]

I thought I'd post an excerpt related to ecigs from a piece recently published by an analyst at JPMorgan for those interested. Unfortunately I can't distribute the entire piece, but I'm including the areas related to ecigs. The rest of the document just discusses overall regulation on the tobacco industry; not really all that exciting anyway

Snip:

E-Cigarettes

The FDA has attempted to block the importation of e-cigarettes on several grounds, in part because they are unsafe and also, it argues, because they are illegal. At a late July news conference led by principal deputy commissioner Sharfstein, the FDA revealed results of tests that it had run on e-cigarettes. According to these tests the e- cigarettes tested positive for diethylene glycol, a toxic antifreeze ingredient, as well as emitting “tobacco-specific nitrosamines which are human carcinogens.” But Elizabeth Whelan, president of the American Council on Science and Health, said the FDA’s claims were “distorted, incomplete and misleading....” (The Washington Times August 6, 2009)

E-Cigarettes Risk Appears Similar to Nicotine Replacement Risk

However, there is evidence to suggest that e-cigarettes are no more dangerous than the nicotine replacement products which anyone, including adolescents, can acquire. For instance, a new report, commissioned by one of the e-cigarette manufacturers, NJOY, found that the new cigarettes are no more dangerous than the entire range of nicotine replacement products currently approved by the FDA.

On the subject of tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNAs), for example, the NJOY report noted that “Data presented in the report [the FDA report] does not adequately support the opinion that users of NJOY products would actually be exposed to TSNAs....” The report also notes that none of the chemicals that the FDA was worried about was “able to be quantifiably measured in the liquid of NYOY’s cartridges because they were all below the limits of quantification.” And “With respect to the TSNAs, the report did not mention that these substances are found in nicotine gum, the patch, nasal spray, and lozenges in concentrations that are at the very least similar to, or higher than those found in the NJOY cartridges.”

We acknowledge that because the study was commissioned by NJOY critics will be skeptical, but also note that severe critics of the Tobacco industry, such as Dr. Michael Siegel of the Boston University Social and Behavioral Sciences, are supportive of e-cigarettes as an alternative to smoking. (see http://tobaccoanalysis.blogspot.com/search?q=e-cigarettes)

An earlier study on the safety of the e-cigarette Ruyan® from anti-smoking activist Murray Laugesen found that glycol is approved as a food additive and animal tests have found it safe.

Safe Relative to Cigarettes Is the Key Question

We believe studies that show that e-cigarettes are equivalent risk to nicotine replacement products imply that e-cigarettes are significantly safer than conventional cigarettes, which we think should be the key message about this product from the FDA. Thus the real question for us is how safe are e-cigarettes in relation to conventional cigarettes, not to some absolute standard of safety which is not relevant to smokers who have already made a risky decision. The answer to that question is, in our view, considerably safer.

Unlike conventional cigarettes, e-cigarettes reduce the risks of smoking significantly, because they do not contain either the tobacco or the chemicals that are thought to be the source of the carcinogenic risk of regular cigarettes. Even if the nicotine in e- cigarettes were to pose some significant health hazard (which it appears not to, as shown by the support for Nicotine Replacement therapies by various government agencies and noted in studies such as the 2001 Institute of Medicine study on Harm Reduction), it ought to be considerably less substantial than the mortality and morbidity risks associated with smoking. Any way that the risk calculus is done, we believe it is clear that e-cigarettes without tobacco and tobacco smoke are likely to be less risky to smokers than conventional cigarettes.

Inauspicious, but Early Days

In short we believe the FDA’s handling of its first issue, e-cigarettes, demonstrates that potentially not all the available scientific evidence was considered. However, it is important to not read too much into these early days as the agency’s lack of experience in tobacco regulation in general and more particularly with the tricky subject of e-cigarettes may account for this inauspicious regulatory beginning.

[StringDancer]

Interesting find, Keith. Thanks for posting it.

[BirdDog]

Great find! Thanks for posting!